The prospect of such hostilities has been suddenly brought closer this year, following events that are individually and as a series without parallel in recent decades. On its eve, Erdogan gave an interview calling for revisions of the Lausanne Treaty of This is the treaty that defines the borders of the modern Turkish state, while guaranteeing the rights of Greek and Muslim minorities in the two countries. No Greek or Turkish head of state or government had ever publicly called for its revision.
It needs neither revision nor updating. It stands as it is, it covers absolutely the issues that it needs to cover, and stresses that among other things it leaves no leeway for gray zones or minority issues," Pavlopoulos said. Erdogan gave as good as he got. Greece had plunged its Muslim minority into poverty, he said, and is racially prejudiced against it. Erdogan also demanded of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras the extradition of ten Turkish military officers who fled to Greece after the failed July coup. The Greek Supreme Court had barred their extradition on the grounds that their lives would be endangered in Turkey.
Tsipras is that these putschists may be returned to Turkey, a country that has abolished the death penalty, a country where torture does not take place. A planned February revival of the Greek-Turkish Supreme Council, a diplomatic forum, never took place, and a May visit to Athens by the Turkish foreign minister is very much in doubt. But there is worse. Turkey upped the ante on the last day of February, arresting two Greek officers who apparently strayed into Turkish territory while on a routine patrol on the Thracian border.
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The standard practice for both sides during the last three decades has been to return wayward patrols at the nearest checkpoint after a routine procedure. Turkish authorities instead jailed the men and charged them with illegal entry. More serious charges may follow. Is Turkey generating grievances as a pretext for war? Who would gain from such a war?
How would America react? And why has Erdogan chosen this moment to escalate tension?
The Way Forward: Sixty years from the accession of Greece and Turkey to NATO
Greece and Turkey nearly did stumble into war two decades ago. A Greek tug was dispatched to refloat her, but the Turkish captain refused Greek help, saying he was in Turkish territorial waters. He eventually accepted Greek assistance, but not before the Turkish government had voiced a claim to the Imia islets as Turkish. In the new year, the mayor of the largest nearby Greek island, Kalymnos, hoisted a Greek flag on Imia.
The owners of a newly-licensed Turkish television channel CNN Turk decided to boost ratings by filming two journalists replacing the Greek flag with a Turkish one. Prime Minister Tansu Ciller fueled the fire. Greece landed special forces on one of the two islets while Turkish frogmen took the other. As many as 20 Greek and Turkish ships and submarines converged on Imia or Kardik, as the Turks call it. On January 31, the United States intervened to avert an unintended war. Imia stands as a textbook case of calculated escalation leading to the brink of an unintended war, and conditions now are even more conducive to such a war than they were in , because new causes of instability have been added to older ones.
The underlying tensions go back decades. Those future talks are important, because Greece and Turkey have a number of unsettled jurisdictional issues. Under international law, Greece can claim territorial waters of 12 nautical miles around each of its islands, but Turkey threatens to wage war if Greece does so, claiming the Aegean, as a semi-enclosed sea, is a special case.
And the two countries have yet to apportion the continental shelf and settle rights to mineral deposits on and under the sea floor. Exploratory talks have been ongoing since , but Turkey broke them off last summer. Turkey has instead escalated to questioning not the jurisdiction of islands but their very ownership.
Turkish claims are spread throughout the Aegean, but her frustrations focus on the Dodecanese, the island group in the southeast Aegean, which were the last to formally join Greece.
Turkey now objects that it had never formally ratified the protocol. As long as they remained marginal, Turkish revisionist claims did not affect the bilateral relationship, but they have now entered the Turkish political mainstream thanks to the nationalist opposition party, the CHP. People discern fatigue. For Erdogan, who faces re-election next year, there is more at stake than power.
He shut the investigation down in the name of national security, then imprisoned the prosecutors. Erdogan has ruled the country for almost 16 years, and during that time its GDP has grown fourfold and its foreign policy has become increasingly Islamic and assertive. In March, Turkey won its first major victory in Syria, taking the town of Afrin 20 miles from its border. It now plans to move on the town of Manbij, 60 miles to the east, creating the buffer zone it has long sought between its own restive Kurdish citizens and the heavily armed Kurdish militias in Syria and Iraq.
Turkey is also putting its foot down in the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey's NATO membership: A rocky journey since 1952
On February 9, five Turkish navy ships prevented a drilling platform contracted by Italian energy company ENI from reaching its intended site offshore northeast Cyprus. Those wells are scheduled to be completed by the end of this year; early tests have confirmed deposits of 3. Cyprus has been divided since a Turkish invasion created a universally unrecognized Turkish-Cypriot state in the north. Turkey therefore rejects the Cypriot exclusive economic zone assertion and says it will conduct its own exploratory drilling, setting the stage for another confrontation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Many experts believe it is this agenda that drives the latest belligerence in the Aegean. It has ordered an aircraft carrier from Spanish shipyards, due in , and is developing its own ballistic missiles.
Neither has any defensive use close to home. In fact, Greece has cut its defense expenditure by 40 percent in the last decade. This means it has spent no money on procurements other than ordnance. Meanwhile, Turkey is purchasing the F stealth fighter and is pouring billions into developing its own mounted cannon and armored vehicle.
Thanks to previous investments, Greece is for now a formidable adversary. Given these divergent trends, some analysts wonder whether a Turkish power-play in the Aegean is only a question of time. Rozakis believes Turkey is now more assertive in the Aegean than it was 20 years ago.
Now they are saying that they are Turkish. This happened now, this year.
Greece and Turkey Are Playing Dangerous War Games on the Aegean Sea - VICE
There has been a gradual decline in Turkish-NATO relations since and an even swifter deterioration since Turkey has had regional power aspirations since the end of the Cold War. These regional power aspirations were crushed by the Arab Spring. Turkey wanted to lead democratic change and supported groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It hoped that ideological affinities with the new movements in the Middle East would allow it to become a true regional leader for previously repressed populations.
Yet the Arab Spring failed in its goals in the Middle East except in Tunisia, with which Turkey had no substantial links. The coup in Egypt epitomised the failure of Turkish foreign policy in jumping on the bandwagon of change in the Middle East. Similar to its policy towards Egypt, Ankara insisted that the regime in Syria had to change and that Bashar al-Assad had to go.
NATO membership for Cyprus. Yes, Cyprus.
However, this put Turkey at odds with the reality on the ground and gave the impression that Turkish foreign policy was based on unrealistic assumptions that al-Assad could be defeated over a short period of time. In turn, Turkey supports other radical groups in Syria, some of them of a more religious bent with the aim of counterbalancing the YPG in the region. To date Turkey has engaged in three military operations in Syria. In February , in a limited intervention, the Suleyman Shah tomb was relocated to Turkey.
The second, stretching for almost a year between the summer of and the spring of , had as its aim to clear ISIS and certain Kurdish units out of parts of the area west of the Euphrates. The most recent operation, named Olive Branch, began in January against Kurdish forces in north-eastern Syria. Any attempt to advance further into Syria might bring Turkish and US forces face to face, increasing the tension between the two partners. What happens in Manbij and the possibility of a sustainable agreement between Turkey and the US with the recent appointment of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State have given rise to significant expectations.
The unsuccessful coup was orchestrated by a small military clique, most of which were air force personnel. The coup attempt has had serious consequences for democracy in Turkey.
Halkbank and Atilla are accused by US prosecutors of violating US-imposed sanctions on Iran and engaging in banking fraud. The case against Atilla was based on the confessions of an Iranian-Turkish businessman whose relations with Turkish government officials have already been exposed. In addition to Brunson, the arrest of local embassy employees has caused frustration in Washington, giving rise to tension and difficulties in the process of issuing visas.
First, ever since the coup Turkey has been accused of backsliding towards an authoritarian regime.
This has strained relations with certain European countries. A final implication of the coup for NATO is the result of a series of changes within the Turkish armed forces.
http://wp.embedded-vision.com/icem-cfd-13-manual.php In the aftermath of the coup, however, thousands of military personnel were expelled and drastic changes were made to military schooling. Should these trends continue, the result might be a military that is against NATO ideologically and more supportive of cooperating with Russia, and perhaps more conservative in outlook, in contrast with the more secular military of previous decades. Although relations between Turkey and Russia have fluctuated over the past few years and the two countries do not necessarily share the same interests in Syria, ever since the coup they have raised their level of cooperation.
What does Turkey expect from its cooperation with Russia?
Related The Greek-Turkish Relationship and NATO
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